striker report November, 2010 
   
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Fade the Media: Why investors should tune out the media noise
As American journalist Walter Lippmann once said, "The news and the truth are not the same thing".

Much like the steady pulse of oil pollution pumping in to the Gulf of Mexico, the American news media's relentless muddying of the market waters can make it difficult for investors to see clearly.

Over at CNBC you can find experts predicting both bull and bear markets; according to one analyst, gold could go to $36,000 an ounce, while FOX business news offers "four reasons why gold may be over-hyped." Flash crashes, oil spills and euro meltdowns have left media commentators breathless with anticipation over the next big crisis.

On Bloomberg, Smartmoney.com and other market sites, fund managers can be routinely observed talking their books; it appears that nearly everyone has an opinion about the direction of the global economy, and it sometimes seems the more alarming the prediction, the more likely it is to find a home on the web or the 24 hour cable news networks.

But it goes without saying that investors ought to be wary of words spoken by persons with agendas to push.

A case in point: financial reform.

American investment banks such as JP Morgan have argued before congress that if they are forced to choose between risky derivative betting and a Federal bailout safety-net, their business model and the American economy would suffer. Likewise the Federal Reserve has argued that should it be required to disclose the recipients of emergency lines of credit, a run on the banking system would ensue.

Yet much the same players were making much the same arguments back in the '90s when regulators sounded the alarm on the dangers of opaque complex derivative markets. Clearly there are some conflicts of interest at work.

So given all the noise, the conflicting patchwork of advice, what's an investor to do?

At Striker, we respectfully suggest that you "fade the noise" and stick with the signals. Turn off the TV and limit your Internet use. Don't put all your eggs in one basket. Pick a solid system or strategy for money management, and make incremental adjustments where necessary. Talking heads may prevaricate, but charts generally don't lie. A well constructed portfolio can include some exposure to commodity-related investments; consider inoculating your investments against volatility using options strategies or exchange traded funds linked to the VIX.

American General George S. Patton once described the field of battle as an "orgy of disorder", and judging by the US news media, so it would appear to be in the financial world. However, by filtering out some of the noise, it may be possible for investors to get a clearer picture of the road ahead.
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