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January, 2012 | ||||
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Can Russia rescue Europe? Can anyone?
With giddy doomsayers foretelling the demise of Europe, the question occurs, "is it really that serious? And if so, won't Russia intervene to protect and expand its commodity markets?"
While Russians would rightly be wary of wandering into the European debt thicket, a European collapse does little for the Russian bottom line, as commodities are already getting hammered by a stronger dollar and fears of a downturn. Without doubt, Europeans would be even more wary of Russian involvement in their financing given history both recent and not so recent. But the bottom line is: Europe needs Russian gas, and Russia needs European business. Russian and European leaders need to step up and recapture the narrative. Political indecisiveness has compounded fears of a downturn. These fears are not entirely unfounded; one way or another, that bad European debt must be processed, but this unpleasant fact should be weighed against the considerable potential wealth of an expanding and prosperous Europe. To be sure, the European debacle has been dispiriting to witness. The hysterical and relentless negativity of press coverage has arguably influenced investor perceptions. But as a famous musician once observed: "tell them there's no problems, only solutions". One possible solution: some bondholders may have to trade in their short term positions and become longer term investors. Others may have to take a haircut, or opt to have their positions rolled into a new, long term plan for the European Union – one that strives to live within budgets, and avoids financial chicanery. These are drastic and unpleasant considerations for investors, but the plain fact is that it was faith in long term U.S. Government bonds that helped make the United States the strongest and most successful economy in the 20th Century, while it was the short term trade that wreaked havoc in the 21st. The European Union has been a bold experiment thus far. The European markets are not going anywhere, and opportunities are often seized while the crowd is panicking. Policy makers can help by showing some spine, while Russia might consider making a short term investment in their best customer. |
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